Why Java hasn't lived up to expectations on the client. Java rules on the server but has faltered on the client. Presumably due to the runtime distribution issue.
Giga weighs in. A 2003 article but applicable. See "Rich Clients Stand-Alone".
XML Rich Client Technology Strengthens Java. Lines of code comparison in this article is misleading because much of the .Net code listed would be generated by the IDE automatically. Lines of code written would be comparable to that of the XML rich client (and a more interesting comparison). A good article nonetheless.